Intesa Sanpaolo–Prometeia: growth forecast for Italian manufacturing

The image accompanying the News on the 107th Industrial Sector Analysis Report portrays two technicians in a large workshop controlling the functioning of some machinery from a PC

21 May 2025

According to the Industrial Segment Analysis Report (ASI) presented by Intesa Sanpaolo together with Prometeia, the Italian manufacturing sector is preparing for a period of stabilisation in 2025, which will be followed by moderate growth in the 2026-2029 horizon.

The ASI Report, now in its 107^th edition, highlights the resilience of the sector, despite global uncertainty, and its ability to succeed through recovery in foreign markets, investment, and premium positioning.

Some highlights from the Report are presented below:

In 2025 , the turnover of the Italian manufacturing industry is expected to stabilise at 2024 levels at constant prices. Modest revenue growth at current prices (+1.8%) is expected, reaching around €1,143 billion, an increase of €229 billion compared to 2019. Sectors with stronger performance in 2025 include Pharmaceuticals (+2.4%), Mechanics (+1.7%) and FMCG (1.2%).
The foreign channel will be crucial in 2025, especially the recovery of European demand, driven by cooling inflation and Germany's recovery. The reactivation of intra-EU trade will help to counterbalance the general weakness of world trade, which is also affected by uncertainty over US trade policies.
The domestic market will also contribute to growth in 2025, both on the consumption side, which will benefit from the partial recovery of household purchasing power and contract renewals, and on the investment side.
Investment in capital goods is expected to accelerate in 2025, supported by the presence of incentives such as Transition 5.0 and the good profitability of companies, after stalling in 2024. However, there remains a gap in digitisation, especially for SMEs, and a structural skills shortage.
In the four-year period 2026-2029, Italy's manufacturing industry is expected to grow at an average annual rate of close to 1% at deflated turnover, with greater dynamism in the two-year period 2026-2027 thanks to the boost of the PNRR investments. From 2028 onwards, the driving role will again rely mainly on exports in the absence of new domestic support measures.
Exports will continue to play a key role5. The Italian manufacturing trade balance is expected to expand to €134 billion in 2029, some €31 billion more than in 2019. More than half of this surplus will be generated by Mechanics.
The sectors with the greatest growth opportunities by 2029, thanks to the brighter mix of domestic and foreign demand, are FMCG and Pharmaceuticals (+2.4% on average per year). This is followed by sectors related to the double transition: Mechanics (+2.1%), Electronics (+1.8%) and Electrical Engineering (+1.5%).

Download the summary of the May 2025 ASI Report (available in Italian only)